The seminar on cognitive modeling of budget strategies was held25.02.2017 / Conferences, assemblies
The 1st seminar of the Project "Cognitive tools for strategic analysis of the state budget of Azerbaijan in the conditions of global challenges, including oil drop world prices" was held.
The Project received a grant from the Science Development Fund under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2015 (ЕIF–KETPL–2015–1(25)).
The Project participants are: Institute of Control Systems of NASA, Azerbaijan State Economic University, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Baku branch of Moscow State University named after M.V. Lomonosov, "Oil Supply” Company.
Project leader is Robert Karayev - Head of the Laboratory of the Institute of Control Systems of NASA.
The problem of strategic analysis of budget projects today becomes extremely topical. It is caused by the increasing of turbulence of the external environment and spontaneously arising strategic threats to national economy:
- The global economic crisis,
- Falling in world prices on the markets of hydrocarbons,
- Socio-economic shocks in the countries-partners,
- The growth of immigration flows from Russia,
- Tense military and political situation in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in the Near and Middle East,
- Brexit et al.
Existing budgeting concepts – "input budgeting”, "performance budgeting”, and existing tools for budget analysis are loosely coupled with the strategic aspect and focused chiefly on the optimization of income and expenditure items of the budget.
It should be noted that the resolution of strategic aspect in the current difficult conditions faces with many difficulties inherent in all "ill structured" (G. Simon) problems of modern world: multifactor, heterogeneity of factors, mutual influence of factors, dynamism, uncertainty, and high role of the human factor, which excludes the possibility modeling of socio-economic effects by traditional economic-mathematical methods.
With the serious limitations is faced also popular in recent years, various versions of the SWOT-analysis, pretending for the role of tools of strategic analysis. Their use leads to a multitude of private budget strategies that:
1) have different degrees of importance,
2) are each other in complicated causal relationships,
3) tied to the current macroeconomic situation.
Naturally, the holistic view of the strategic sustainability of the budget and its fate in the medium and long term, they do not give.
Significant help in solving strategic aspect can have a new generation of support tools - intellectual tools based on cognitive technologies.
Today the world community enters into "cognitive technologies era» (https://www.ibm.com), which open up opportunities for solving non-formalized problems in various areas: public administration, politics, economy, ecology, sociology, health, education, conflict and emergency situations, and others.
Together with the nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and information technologies cognitive technologies form the «NBIC-convergence" (http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/3/NBIC3_report.pdf) that defines the leading trend in the world science for the next 50 years.
Budget planning - one of the areas where cognitive tools can be useful, especially in study of strategic sustainability of budget in condition of transition to a new economic model and the growing of turbulence of external environment.